Tsunamis to hit Philippines 1 to 2:30 pm Sunday

[Mao]

MANILA, Philippines (2nd UPDATE) -- The first wave of tsunamis generated by the massive earthquake which hit Chile on Saturday will hit the Philippines at 1-2.:30 p.m. on Sunday.

"The estimated arrival time of the first tsunami waves is between 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM (Philippine Time) on 28 February 2010 (Sunday afternoon)," the Phivolcs said in its 11:30 pm bulletin posted on Saturday.

Dr. Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), told radio dzMM early Sunday that alert level 1 was still up over the eastern coast of the Philippines.

He said Phivolcs is not yet recommending an evacuation of eastern coastal communities since they have not yet established how high the tsunamis will be.

As of posting time, he said the tsunamis that have hit some parts of Chile were only 1 to 2 meters high.

Eastern coastal communities

Based on the Phivolcs advisory, the following "coastal areas fronting the Pacific Ocean that should keep watch" are:

Batanes Group of Islands                 
Cagayan                                           
Ilocos Norte                                       
Isabela                                               

Quezon                                               
Aurora                                               

Camarines Norte                             
Camarines Sur                                 
Albay                                                 
Sorsogon
Catanduanes

Northern Samar
Eastern Samnar
Leyte
Southern Leyte

Surigao del Norte
Surigao del Sur
Davao Oriental
Davao del Sur

"While Tsunami Alert Level 1 means that no evacuation order is in effect, communities along the identified coasts are advised to prepare for possible evacuation. People from threatened communities are strongly advised to coordinate and follow safety instructions from the Office of Civil Defense and local disaster officials," Phivolcs said.

Solidum said a powerful earthquake that hit Chile in 1960 generated tsunamis in the Philippines 24 hours after the quake.

The tsunamis were 3 meters high in Luzon, and around 6 meters in Visayas and Mindanao. Solidum described these as not so high.

He said this may happen again with the magnitude 8.8 quake that hit Chile on Saturday.

Aurora Gov. Bellaflor Angara Castillo told dzMM early Sunday that the mayors of the province have been informed about the tsunami warning and that their contingency plans are already activate.
 
Evacuation centers and transportation are being prepared, she said. Hopefully, "our preparations will be sufficient," she added

Precautionary alert

“Bilang pag-iingat, nagpalabas ang Phivolcs-DOST ng Tsunami Alert Level No. 1 kaninang 3:10 p.m. na ang ibig sabihin kailangang maghanda ang ating mga kababayan,” Solidum told dzMM Saturday afternoon.

("As a precaution, Phivolcs-DOST issued a Tsunami Alert Level No. 1 this 3:10 p.m. to advise the public to be ready.")

The Phivolcs director said the issuance of an alert is just part of their standard operating procedure every time there is a tsunami.

“Ito po ay standard operating procedure natin na kung magkaroon ng malaking earthquake na may abilidad na magdulot ng tsunami dito sa atin, ay nagtataas tayo ng Alert Level 1 para abiso sa ating mga kababayan. Nage-evacuate po tayo pag itinaas natin sa Alert Level No. 3 na tsunami alert,” he said.

("This is a standard operating procedure that when there’s a big earthquake that could bring tsunami to us, we issue Alert Level 1 to advise the public. We only order evacuation when we raise Alert Level No. 3).

In 1960, Chile was hit by the world's biggest earthquake since records dating back to 1900, USGS data shows. The 9.5 magnitude quake devastated the south-central city of Valdivia, killing 1,655 people and sending a tsunami which battered Easter Island 2,300 miles off Chile's Pacific seaboard and continued as far as Hawaii, Japan and the Philippines.

Solidum also said that the earthquake in Chile is not in anyway connected to the recent tremors that hit General Santos City, Butuan City and even Japan.

“Iba-iba ang dahilan ng pagkilos ng mga faults at mga bloke ng mga bato sa ating bansa (there are different reasons for the sudden movements of faults in our country,” he said.

The Phivolcs said that a magnitude 5.3 struck 76 kilometers southeast of General Santos City in South Cotabato province at 12:18 a.m. Saturday.

A shallow magnitude 3.3 also struck 30 kilometers northeast off Butuan City in Agusan del Norte province at 3:35 a.m.

A strong earthquake also hit Japan's southern island of Okinawa. The US Geological Survey said the 7.3 magnitude quake struck at 5:31 a.m. Saturday 52 miles east of the island's capital of Naha, a city of about 320,000 about 1,600 km (1,000 miles) south of Tokyo. -- With reports from Reuters and Agence France-Presse

[Mao]

MANILA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Philippines ordered a limited precautionary evacuation on Sunday in coastal areas of 19 provinces along its eastern seaboard after raising the level of a tsunami alert issued following a massive earthquake in Chile .

"At 7 a.m. today, we raised the tsunami alert to level 2 and People are advised to stay away from beaches and to report unusual big waves in their areas," Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, told Reuters.

"There's only limited evacuation in some areas where communities are near the water," he said, adding local officials have the authority to force residents to move to safer areas.

The Hawaii-based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center had earlier lifted its warning for most countries on the Pacific basin, leaving it in effect for just Russia and Japan, but Philippine authorities remained concerned about the risk of large waves generated by Saturday's magnitude 8.8 quake.

"We're on standby until early this afternoon. But, we expect only about a metre (3 ft) high wave to reach our eastern shores," Solidum said.

In Malita town on the southern island of Mindanao, about 100 residents had started fleeing, while two other coastal towns were being watched due to unusual strong waves.

A local disaster official, Roderick Milana, said the alert level 2 would remain in force until mid-afternoon and had advised fishermen to avoid going to sea and tie their boats to safety.

In 1960, Solidum said a 9.5 earthquake in Chile generated a tsunami that reached the Philippines within 24 hours, but did not cause damage or death. (Reporting by Manny Mogato; Editing by Alex Richardson)

[Mao]

Thousands living in Philippine provinces facing the Pacific Ocean evacuated their homes early Sunday hours before a tsunami from a major quake near Chile was expected to arrive, officials said.

Officials said the evacuations were orderly, with authorities saying that the waves were not expected to be higher than one metre.

In the popular surfing destination of Siargao on the eastern coast of Mindanao island to the south, about 10,000 people have relocated to safer areas, said Office of the Civil Defence regional director Blanche Gobenciong.

"Many of them walked to fields further inland, while others sought higher ground," provincial police chief Gilbert Cruz said.

In the province of Albay meanwhile, authorities said they had informed over 47,000 families living along the coast to move about five kilometres away from the shore just hours after the 8.8 magnitude quake struck off the coast of Chile on Saturday.

Some had started moving on Sunday morning, although it appeared there was no immediate danger, provincial governor Joey Salceda said.

"The most important thing is that for people not to panic. We have prepared all our local government units since last night," Salceda said over DZBB radio in Manila.

Renato Solidum, chief of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, said the first waves would hit the coasts of 19 provinces on the archipelago's eastern seaboard Sunday afternoon.

"The coastal areas facing the Pacific Ocean may experience tsunami of up to one metre, possibly lower," Solidum said.

"The first waves will arrive between 1.00 pm and 2.30 pm (0500 GMT and 0630 GMT)," he said.

Solidum said the waves will likely continue for several hours, and advised small fishing vessels not to venture out to sea, and for the public not to go to the beaches to watch the swells.

While issuing the alert, Solidum noted that the tsunami that hit Hawaii after the 8.8-magnitude earthquake in the Pacific Ocean near the coast of Chile Saturday did not cause any major damage there.

Other government officials said that people should remain calm and no forced evacuation was in effect.

"We are advising everyone to stay away from the shoreline. But there is no need to panic," said Glen Rabonza, executive director of the Office of Civil Defence, in Manila.

The Philippines is an archipelago of more than 7,000 islands with many people living in communities close to the sea

[Mao]

MANILA, Philippines (UPDATE) - The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) on Sunday afternoon has cancelled the tsunami alert issued after a powerful earthquake hit Chile Saturday.

"As of 3:00 p.m. 28 February 2010, Phivolcs has not received any reports of unusual significant sea level changes within the projected arrival period of tsunami waves in the Philippine coasts (1:00PM to 2:30PM)," the Phivolcs said in a bulletin posted on their web site. (Phivolcs web site: Tsunami Alert Cancellation [12])

"By 4:30 p.m. 28 February 2010, if no other significant sea level changes are observed, local authorities & the public can assume that the tsunami threat has passed. People may resume their normal activities," the statement said.

The said bulletin will be the last issued for the event, the Phivolcs added.

Phivolcs issued on Saturday Tsunami Alert Level 1 and elevated the warning to Tsunami Alert Level 2 on Sunday as it advised the public, especially those living on the country’s eastern coastline, to stay alert for “unusual waves.”

Thousands living in provinces facing the Pacific Ocean evacuated their homes early Sunday hours.

Read: Thousands flee on tsunami alert

Officials said the evacuations were orderly, with authorities saying that the waves were not expected to be higher than 1 meter.


Watch: Hundreds in Surigao, Davao del Sur coastlines flee on tsunami fears
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Watch: Albay residents warned of big waves
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The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) also canceled sea travels in Albay and Catanduanes.

All trips originating from the port of Batangas were canceled from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Sunday, leaving 200 passengers and 30 vessels bound for Abra de Ilog, Occidental Mindoro and Calapan, Oriental Mindoro stranded.

Read: Trips in Batangas port canceled due to tsunami alert

According to PCG Batangas Station Commander Troy Cornelio, roll-on/roll-off (RORO) and fast craft vessels were prohibited from sailing as the country braced for outsized waves.

Renato Solidum, Phivolcs chief, said the first waves would hit the coasts of 19 provinces on the archipelago's eastern seaboard Sunday afternoon.

He said people living in coastal areas in the following provinces fronting the Pacific Ocean should seek higher ground: Batanes Group of Islands, Cagayan, northernmost provinces of Ilocos Norte, Isabela, Quezon, Aurora, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental and Davao del Sur.

"The coastal areas facing the Pacific Ocean may experience tsunami of up to one meter, possibly lower," Solidum said.

"The first waves will arrive between 1:00 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. (0500 GMT and 0630 GMT)," he said.

Solidum said the waves will likely continue for several hours, and advised small fishing vessels not to venture out to sea, and for the public not to go to the beaches to watch the swells.

He said authorities will lower the tsunami alert level if they receive no more reports “during the first arrival of the tsunami from 1 p.m. to 2:30 p.m.

Other government officials said that people should remain calm and no forced evacuation was in effect.

"We are advising everyone to stay away from the shoreline. But there is no need to panic," said Glen Rabonza, executive director of the Office of Civil Defense, in Manila.

The Philippines is an archipelago of more than 7,000 islands with many people living in communities close to the sea.

[Mao]

HONOLULU – The warning was ominous, its predictions dire: Oceanographers issued a bulletin telling Hawaii and other Pacific islands that a killer wave was heading their way with terrifying force and that "urgent action should be taken to protect lives and property."

But the devastating tidal surge predicted after Chile's magnitude 8.8-earthquake for areas far from the epicenter never materialized and by Sunday, authorities had lifted the warning after waves half the predicted size tickled the shores of Hawaii and tourists once again jammed beaches and restaurants.

Scientists acknowledged they overstated the threat, but defended their actions, saying they took the proper steps and learned the lessons of the 2004 Indonesian tsunami that killed thousands of people who didn't get enough warning.

"It's a key point to remember that we cannot end the warnings. Failure to warn is not an option for us," said Dai Lin Wang, an oceanographer at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii. "We cannot have a situation that we thought was no problem and then it's devastating. That just cannot happen."

Hundreds of thousands of people fled shorelines for higher ground Saturday in a panic that circled the Pacific Rim after scientists warned 53 nations and territories that a tsunami had been generated by the massive Chilean quake.

It was the largest-scale evacuation in Hawaii in years, if not decades. Emergency sirens blared throughout the day, the Navy moved ships out of Pearl Harbor, and residents hoarded gasoline, food and water in anticipation of a major disaster. Some supermarkets even placed limits on items like Spam because of the panic buying.

At least five people were killed by the tsunami on Robinson Crusoe Island off Chile's coast and huge waves devastated the port city of Talcahuano, near hard-hit Concepcion on Chile's mainland.

But the threat of monster waves that left Hawaii's sun-drenched beaches empty for hours never appeared _ a stark contrast to the tidal surge that killed 230,000 people around the Indian Ocean in 2004 and flattened entire communities.

This time, waves of more than 5 feet were reported in Kahului Bay in Maui and in Hilo, on the eastern coast of Hawaii's Big Island, but did little damage. Predictions of wave height in some areas were off by as much as 50 percent.

In Tonga, where up to 50,000 people fled inland hours ahead of the tsunami, the National Disaster Office had reports of a wave up to 6.5 feet hitting a small northern island, with no indications of damage.

And in Japan, where authorities ordered 400,000 people out of coastal communities, the biggest wave was a 4-foot surge that hit the northern island of Hokkaido, flooding some piers.

Still, scientists offered no apologies for the warning and defended their work, all while worrying that the false alarm could lead to complacency among coastal residents _ a disastrous possibility in the earthquake-prone Pacific Rim.

A similar quake in Chile in 1960 created a tsunami that killed about 140 people in Japan. The same surge hit Hawaii and devastated downtown Hilo, on the Big Island, killing 61 residents and wiping out more than 500 homes and businesses.

"If you give too many warnings and none of them materialize, then you lose your credibility," Wang said. "That's something that we have to deal with and we have to improve."

Despite some of the panic in Hawaii, public officials called the evacuation "perfect" and said it was a good test case that proved the system worked.

Chaos was at a minimum as people heeded evacuation orders and roads were free of the gridlock that can paralyze a region before a disaster. The smooth response occurred largely because the state had so long to prepare; Hawaii is nearly 7,000 miles from where the quake hit, and it took 15 hours for the tsunami to arrive.

"I hope everyone learned from this for next time, and there will be a next time," said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist for the warning center.

The science of predicting tsunamis is difficult, given the vast size of the ocean and the volatile forces at work miles below the surface.

Scientists use an earthquake's magnitude and location as the basis for their predictions and then refine it constantly with data from more than 30 deep-water sensors stationed across the Pacific as the shock wave sweeps across the ocean floor.

The sensors, located at 15,000 to 20,000 feet beneath the surface, measure the weight of the water and beam it to buoys floating on the surface. Scientists then use the data to pinpoint where the surge is and when it will make landfall.

Coastal inundation models based on topographic mapping add another layer of analysis, helping scientists make assumptions about how the surge will behave in shallower waters and how it might affect shoreline communities.

"There are all sorts of assumptions that we make in trying to figure out how big the waves are going to be. If we can avoid some of those assumptions, maybe we can do a better job," said Fryer.

"If this event happened tomorrow, even with this knowledge, we would be forced to do the exact same thing."

Those models could be more accurate if scientists had more deep-water sensors and could build coastal inundation models for vast parts of the Pacific Rim where the topography hasn't yet been well-surveyed, Wang said.

Because complete data doesn't exist for every coastal area, scientists must play it safe in their wave predictions, he said.

"Even for Hawaii, we only have a forecast for less than 10 locations, we don't have inundation models for every coastal point in Hawaii and it's the same story for the U.S. mainland," Wang said. "We've got to be a little conservative. One point doesn't tell you that's going to be the maximum everywhere else."

In areas were inundation models exist, scientists' predictions were close to accurate, Wang said.

Residents and tourists alike in Hawaii said they weren't bothered by the evacuation and supported the scientists' actions _ even though the waves never showed up.

Eugene Okamoto, 33, said he came to Honolulu from Hilo to visit some tourist attractions with his father and was disappointed the two had to cancel their plans because of the evacuation orders.

But Okamoto said his family understands the tsunami threat better than most because some of his relatives lived through the tidal surge in 1960. They remember how the water was sucked down the beach moments before the wave hit.

"My uncle was on the top floor when all the water washed away and all the kids ran out to grab the fish and before they could get back, the wave came. He was way up top, he saw all his friends get washed away and none of them were found, ever," Okamoto said, as he sat with his father in a hotel lobby. "They did the right thing."